Below Replacement and Beyond: A Gendered Reading of Sri Lanka's 2024 Census Fertility, Marriage, and Labour Market Data

Abstract

Sri Lanka's 15th Census of Population and Housing (2024) indicates that fertility rates have declined significantly, with a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) recorded at 1.3 births per woman and a Total Marital Fertility Rate of 2.7. This paper interprets these findings through a gender perspective rather than as an impartial demographic statistic. Utilising secondary data from the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) alongside supplementary evidence from the International Labour Organization and the World Bank, this paper delineates four interconnected trends: (i) a significant decline in fertility rates since 1981, accompanied by a postponement of marriage, as evidenced by the Singulate Mean Age at Marriage increasing to 29.2 years for men and 25.6 years for women; (ii) a swift progression towards an ageing population, indicated by an ageing index of 87 and a nearing parity between old-age dependency and child dependency; (iii) a persistent disparity in labour force participation rates, with men at 67.4% and women at 28.9%, despite women's increasing dominance in tertiary education; and (iv) an escalation in the feminisation of vulnerability in old age, as demonstrated by the widowhood gap among the elderly, where 44.2% of women aged 65 and above are widowed compared to 10.5% of men. The paper contextualises these findings within the frameworks of gender-equity theories related to fertility transition, positing that Sri Lanka's low fertility is indicative of an incomplete transition. It suggests that the advancement of individual-level gender equality has surpassed the development of institutional-level gender equity in areas such as labour markets, care infrastructure, and marriage norms. It concludes with considerations for policies that are responsive to gender in relation to population and care.