Digital Development Analysis based on cognitive modeling

Abstract

The article examines the issue of digital development, which "obliges" the features of the development of modern society and the world economy. Global trends in economic processes are analyzed, as well as future technologies that can change our lives and affect industry. World experience shows that there is a direct connection between the level of informatization and the economic growth of regions. However, high investment rates and widespread implementation of informatization do not in themselves guarantee accelerated economic growth. According to estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, today, in the context of the information boom, regions may invest excessive funds in IT “either in an effort to compensate for a lack of qualifications or due to the absence of a clear market strategy for IT”. At present, the solution to this issue is everywhere faced with the problem of uncertainty, which practically excludes the possibility of using traditional methods of economic and mathematical modeling and decision-making. To take these relationships into account, a fuzzy cognitive map based on rules (Rule Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps) and a cognitive analysis of the “state of digital development” is carried out. The map can be used for qualitative analysis and solution of a number of key problems related to the selection of priority areas of informatization, studying the dynamics of internal indicators of informatization, assessing the impact of informatization on the main indicators of economic growth of regions.