SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION OF POST-SOVIET STATES: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF AZERBAIJAN, BELARUS, AND KYRGYZSTAN

Abstract

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, former republics faced the urgent need to restructure their economies and governance systems. Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan represent three distinctive paths of socio-economic transformation, shaped by diverse institutional frameworks, natural resource bases, and reform trajectories. This paper provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of macroeconomic and social development in these countries from 1991 to 2024. Using official statistical data, the study evaluates key indicators such as GDP per capita, poverty rates, inflation, employment, and education. The research focuses particularly on the relationship between income and human capital and their impact on poverty reduction. To quantify these effects, we apply multiple linear regression models, where poverty serves as the dependent variable and average wage and education level as independent variables. The statistical results confirm the significance of both factors in explaining poverty dynamics, although with varying intensity across countries. Azerbaijan shows the strongest responsiveness due to consistent economic growth and investment in education. Belarus displays a more state-centered model with stable poverty rates, while Kyrgyzstan’s results are moderated by a weaker institutional environment and high dependence on remittances. The findings support the hypothesis that human capital and income are critical to poverty alleviation in post-Soviet contexts. Moreover, the paper demonstrates the utility of econometric modeling as a policy tool for identifying effective strategies for sustainable and inclusive development.