AZERBAIJAN'S INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION PROSPECTS WITHIN THE EAST-WEST CORRIDOR

Abstract

Azerbaijan's geographical location has made the country one of the main nodes of the East-West international transport corridor. This advantage has gained even greater strategic importance, especially since 2022, against the backdrop of global geopolitical changes and the reshaping of freight flows.
The study is based on the analysis of empirical time-series data covering 2022–2025, a comparative legal and institutional assessment of bilateral and multilateral cooperation agreements, as well as a structural comparison of transit performance indicators by country.
The results show that in 2024, the volume of freight transportation on the TITR (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) increased by 63% compared to the previous year, reaching 4.1 million tons. 287 freight trains moved in the direction of China, which represents an increase of 86%. Azerbaijan-China bilateral trade turnover exceeded 3.1 billion US dollars in 2023. At the same time, the €10 billion investment commitment announced in 2024 under the EU's Global Gateway initiative for sustainable transport connectivity in Central Asia signals growing regional interest in the Trans-Caspian corridor; this amount does not represent investment directed specifically to Azerbaijan.
Finally, Azerbaijan has institutionally diversified its multi-vector cooperation model through platforms such as TRACECA, the BTK railway, the SCO and the Turkic States Organization. The sustainable competitive advantage of this model depends on the pace of institutional reforms and the prospects for the implementation of structural projects such as the Zangezur corridor. The paper also assesses three alternative development scenarios up to 2030 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic) and identifies key institutional risks and priority policy directions